Since the beginning of the poker boom, skeptics have been quick to say that this was one game that just wouldn't last. But weeks became months, and months turned into years (well, at least a few of them), and poker is still the talk of the nation, if not the world. According to an article published recently by Reuters ('Poker's lucky streak seen fading in US shops', December 22), however, the poker craze is indeed nearing its end. The evidence: waning interest in poker merchandise, poker programming and, lastly, poker stocks. It stands to reason, however, that interest is not waning; rather, that the market is changing.

Last year, stores simply could not keep their shelves stocked with enough poker merchandise to feed the growing craving for everything poker. This year, however, it seems that retailers have overshot their expectations, and now poker products are making their way from ornate storefront displays to desperate everything-must-go discount racks. Nevertheless, this may be a mere indication that poker consumers are becoming an altogether more discerning bunch. Perhaps flimsy poker chips are no longer enough to satisfy today's poker aficionado. Indeed, if manufacturers of poker goods fail to adapt to their evolving consumer base, interest will fizzle.

As far as television is concerned, production companies were astounded when demand for poker programming positively mushroomed, causing every poor boob with a camcorder to claim he/she had the next big concept for poker TV. Indeed, it seems a new poker show is launching every week, if not on a more mainstream channel, then at least on some digital cable outlet. Nonetheless, ratings for poker TV are also reportedly on the decline. This is natural, considering that just a year or two ago, one could count the number of poker shows on a single hand. Today, the number of programs is pretty much endless, and, thus, the original viewer base has been spread over an infinitely larger number of options. It is perhaps true that the options in poker television have grown at a faster rate than that of the viewer community, but this is not necessarily an indication that interest is waning.

Finally, the Reuters article implied that investing in online poker companies will never become a solid and trusted bet, due to legality issues in the U.S. This claim is difficult to swallow, however, considering the example of PartyGaming. The company, which is the largest online poker company in the world, surpassed its float price late last month, after months of dipping share prices. Also, earlier this month PartyGaming announced that that its full-year profits were likely to exceed expectations, leading to an initial 17 percent rise in share price. PartyGaming did, however, suffer a blow soon after, when leading broker Lehman Brothers undercut the company's value, citing that not too much clout should be given to PartyGaming's expectations. The skepticism displayed by Lehman Brothers is indicative of the general feeling among many of the powers that be in the stock market.

That being said, growth of online gaming sites, poker included, continues to increase. With more people playing at what many believe to be illegal sites, legitimacy for online poker will also continue to grow. Similarly, the more people openly break these boundaries, the less relevant these boundaries become. In short, the online poker site of today is becoming the speakeasy of the prohibition, and we all know what happened to that movement. Yes, it will take time for investors to warm up to online poker in any sort of a stable manner, but I, for one, am betting on it.

Source:  Poker777 Staff

Sunday, 25 December 2005